******* Lebanon 2013-14 project: Syrian civil war spillover
****	
***
**
*
*

* cd "C:\Users\NH\Dropbox\Lebanon 2013-14\Data work"

clear
import delim lbndata.csv, delim(",")

g logdistborder = log(distborder)
g logdistbey = log(distancebey)
g logdistdms = log(distancedmsc)
g logdisthoms = log(distancehoms)
g lnpop2 = lnpop^2
g lnpop3 = lnpop^3

g sunnishare = sunni/totalpop
g shiashare = shia/totalpop
g shiaalawishare = (shia + alawi) / totalpop

g shiaxhezbmp = shia * hezbmp
g shiasharexhezbmp = shiashare * hezbmp
g shiaalawisharexhezbmp = shiaalawishare * hezbmp
g shiaaltxhezbmp = shiaalt * hezbmp
g sunnisharexhezbmp = sunnishare * hezbmp
g shiasharexhezbmpalt = shiashare * hezbmpalt

label var shia "Shia residents"
label var shiashare "% Shia residents"
label var sunnishare "% Sunni residents"
label var shiaalt "% Shia (alt. measure)"

label var hezbmp "Hezbollah MP"
label var shiaxhezbmp "Shia * Hezbollah MP"
label var shiasharexhezbmp "% Shia * Hezbollah MP"
label var shiaaltxhezbmp "% Shia (alt.) * Hezbollah MP"
label var shiasharexhezbmpalt "% Shia * Hezbollah MP (alt. measure)"

label var logdistborder "Syrian border (km, log)"
label var logdistbey "Distance Beirut (km, log)"
label var logdistdms "Distance Damascus (km, log)"
label var logdisthoms "Distance Homs (km, log)"
label var lnpop "Population (log)"
label var lnpop2 "Population (log)^2"

label var bomb "Bombing, 2013-14"

label var northfe "North"
label var beirutfe "Beirut"
label var southfe "South"
label var beqaafe "Beqaa"
label var mountfe "Mount Lebanon"



************************************************************************
************************************************************************
*** BOMBINGS				      **************************
************************************************************************
************************************************************************
************************************************************************
************************************************************************
*
*
* Control variables:
*
*	
*	log(pop), log(pop)^2
*	Distance: Beirut/Syrian border/Homs/Damascus
*	Region fixed effects
*
*
*********************************************************************************************
******************************* Baseline model: 
* Linear probability model, Shia population %
*********************************************************************************************
*******************************
*******************************
*
*
*******************************  
* Baseline model 1: Linear Prob model, Shia population share (%) 
*******************************


reg bomb shiashare hezbmp northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table1, replace label
reg bomb shiasharexhezbmp shiashare hezbmp northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table1, append label
reg bomb shiasharexhezbmp shiashare hezbmp lnpop lnpop2 logdistbey logdistborder logdisthoms logdistdms northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table1, append word label



*********************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************
******************************* Alternative regressions: ROBUSTNESS CHECKS for measures
*********************************************************************************************


*******************************  
* Robust model 2: Linear Prob model, Shia population share (%), INCL. Sunni% 
*******************************


reg bomb shiashare hezbmp sunnishare northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table2, replace label
reg bomb shiasharexhezbmp shiashare hezbmp sunnishare northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table2, append label
reg bomb shiasharexhezbmp shiashare hezbmp sunnishare lnpop lnpop2 logdistbey logdistborder logdisthoms logdistdms northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table2, append word label

*******************************  
* Robust model 3: OLS, Shia pop. share (%), INCL. Sunni% && interaction Sunni% * Hezb MP
*******************************

reg bomb shiashare hezbmp sunnishare sunnisharexhezbmp northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table3, replace label
reg bomb shiasharexhezbmp shiashare hezbmp sunnishare sunnisharexhezbmp northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table3, append label
reg bomb shiasharexhezbmp shiashare hezbmp sunnishare sunnisharexhezbmp lnpop lnpop2 logdistbey logdistborder logdisthoms logdistdms northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table3, append word label


*******************************  
* Robust model 4: OLS, Shia & Alawi population share (%)
*******************************


reg bomb shiaalawishare hezbmp northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table4, replace label
reg bomb shiaalawisharexhezbmp shiaalawishare hezbmp northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table4, append label
reg bomb shiaalawisharexhezbmp shiaalawishare hezbmp lnpop lnpop2 logdistbey logdistborder logdisthoms logdistdms northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table4, append word label


*******************************  
* Robust model 5: OLS, alt. Shia share measure (%)
*******************************


reg bomb shiaalt hezbmp northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table5, replace label
reg bomb shiaaltxhezbmp shiaalt hezbmp northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table5, append label
reg bomb shiaaltxhezbmp shiaalt hezbmp lnpop lnpop2 logdistbey logdistborder logdisthoms logdistdms northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table5, append word label


*********************************************************************************************
*********************************************************************************************
******************************* Alternative regressions: ROBUSTNESS CHECKS for PROBIT
*********************************************************************************************


*******************************  
* Baseline model 2.1: Probit, Shia population share (%) 
*******************************


probit bomb shiashare hezbmp, r
outreg2 using table6, replace label
probit bomb shiasharexhezbmp shiashare hezbmp northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table6, append label
probit bomb shiasharexhezbmp shiashare hezbmp lnpop lnpop2 logdistbey logdistborder logdisthoms logdistdms northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table6, append word label


*******************************  
* Robust model 2.2: Probit, Shia population share (%), INCL. Sunni% 
*******************************


probit bomb shiashare hezbmp sunnishare northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table7, replace label
probit bomb shiasharexhezbmp shiashare hezbmp sunnishare northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table7, append label
probit bomb shiasharexhezbmp shiashare hezbmp sunnishare lnpop lnpop2 logdistbey logdistborder logdisthoms logdistdms northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table7, append word label


*******************************  
* Robust model 2.3: Probit, Shia pop. share (%), INCL. Sunni% && interaction Sunni% * Hezb MP
*******************************

probit bomb shiashare hezbmp sunnishare sunnisharexhezbmp northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table8, replace label
probit bomb shiasharexhezbmp shiashare hezbmp sunnishare sunnisharexhezbmp northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table8, append label
probit bomb shiasharexhezbmp shiashare hezbmp sunnishare sunnisharexhezbmp lnpop lnpop2 logdistbey logdistborder logdisthoms logdistdms northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table8, append word label


*******************************  
* Robust model 2.4: Probit, Shia & Alawi population share (%)
*******************************


probit bomb shiaalawishare hezbmp, r
outreg2 using table9, replace label
probit bomb shiaalawisharexhezbmp shiaalawishare hezbmp northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table9, append label
probit bomb shiaalawisharexhezbmp shiaalawishare hezbmp lnpop lnpop2 logdistbey logdistborder logdisthoms logdistdms northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table9, append word label


*******************************  
* Robust model 2.5: Probit, alt. Shia share measure (%)
*******************************


probit bomb shiaalt hezbmp, r
outreg2 using table10, replace label
probit bomb shiaaltxhezbmp shiaalt hezbmp northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table10, append label
probit bomb shiaaltxhezbmp shiaalt hezbmp lnpop lnpop2 logdistbey logdistborder logdisthoms logdistdms northfe beirutfe southfe beqaafe mountfe, r
outreg2 using table10, append word label




